By Ryan Ozawa
All eyes are on the next Fed meeting on Sept. 21, where another interest rate hike is expected.
The sugar high of the Ethereum merge on Thursday led into a dour weekend of red for both the newly miner-free ETH and top crypto Bitcoin.
Ethereum is down from its pre-merge perch of $1,580 to $1,335 as of this writing, following a steep drop of 6% within hours of the merge and down 15% overall late Sunday.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, fell to $19,414 on Friday, and saw a brief rally take it above $20,000 on Saturday. The boost was shortlived, however, with the largest cryptocurrency by marketcap returning to its Friday lows as the weekend drew to a close.
Ethereum was down 22% for the week, and Bitcoin was down 10%. The declines echo a similarly down previous week in which overall economic metrics—ranging from the Consumer Price Index to traditional market indicators Nasdaq and the S&P 500—also fell.
But Ethereum’s sinking fortunes following the merge belies some analysts’ assertions immediately following the upgrade that the impact of the merge on the value of ETH had already been priced into the market.
Prior to the conversion, some had even predicted a “merge surge,” But the momentary jump in the price of ETH quickly evaporated. Prominent crypto Twitter commentator Doctor Profit announced today that he had sold all of his Ethereum.
The weekend also brought reports of the first “replay attack” targeting the Ethereum and the recently hardforked EthereumPoW blockchains. As with the invalid blockchain setting that briefly delayed the launch of ETHW, this exploit was caused by the failure to verify the chainlink ID to determine on which blockchain a transaction was taking place.
As for Bitcoin, its total market cap was headed back toward its six-week low of $18,661 on Sept. 6, territory it hasn’t touched since the end of June. Bitcoin’s total market cap was back below $375 billion on Sunday, a threshold last breached on Sept. 6 and not since July 13 before that.
For his part, Doctor Profit—whose main claim to fame is predicting $18,000 as the “ultimate bottom” for Bitcoin as early as April 2021—said that “the bottom is being formed” with a likely prince range of $18,000 to $25,000 through next March.
But a lot hinges on the next move announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve, he warns. While Doctor Profit feels Bitcoin’s price can withstand a 0.75 basis point increase in interest rates, a full 1 basis point will mean “we see blood.”
“Once the FED decides the great reset, all of us will be fkd,” he tweeted.
The last Federal Reserve meeting in July yielded a 0.75% increase. The next meeting, set for Sept. 21, will likely bring another increase—the main question being how big an increase. Some are expecting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to announce a full percent hike.