Bitcoin Value Holding Near The Lows

March 27, 2015May 15, 2015 TK 0 Comments Bitcoin

Story By: Venzen Khaosan

Bitcoin value (price) is still holding above a rising channel line as the moving averages slowly converge around it. Price has fallen back from a local high yesterday and is setting up for a move.

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Bitcoin Value and Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 10h57 UTC

BTC-China 15-Minute Chart

From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:

The current chart has a rising 200MA (red), and price is consolidating around it. MACD and the moving averages have not yet compressed fully, so it may be a while (hours or even days) before the next move transpires. Judging by the first example of similar price action, on 17 March, the MAs look similarly aligned but the MACD compression is not evident. Of course, price moves can happen without MACD compression, but had been accompanied by MACD compression in the two prior examples in the chart. Which way will it go?

Judging by the previous example (21 March) price could drop lower and then return to the 200MA to consolidate for a move up. In the case of the present area of price action, there has not been any consolidation to the 200MA so far, hence we have to look at the function of the price wave since the low of 25 March.

It is being proposed that the wave since the low has been corrective – it has unfolded in 3 waves to $255 / 1580 CNY and should now unfold in 3 waves to the downside. We have one wave down (wave “a”) and price seems to be forming wave “b” around the dual pivots of the red 200MA and the grey channel line. Wave “c”, then, should drop to near $240 / 1480 CNY or perhaps lower.

If decline continues to a new low – lower than the low of the 25th – then we can know that a larger wave down is unfolding and we can expect it to eventually touch the red Fib line or some other channel (to be determined) near $220. Much lower is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.

For now we expect wave “b” to consolidate sideways, to be followed by a wave “c” to near 1480 CNY / $240. Failure to make the drop and additional advance above $260 / 1600 means a larger advance is underway..

Summary

We have to wait and see what Bitcoin price action unfolds in the chart, the market is not currently running with any moves and, hence, consolidation. Tomorrow is futures close day with some exchanges, which sometimes precludes drastic moves until the next week/month contract has opened.

Bitfinex Buy/Sell volume has seen some heavy selling in the last hour but with little effect in the chart.