The end of 2019 is almost nigh, and for some reason, analysts and speculators have crept out of their respective hideaways to predict a blow-off top for the price of bitcoin in the years to come. But what makes them so sure?

Among our resident divinators are Fundstrat’s Tom lee—a quasi-Nostradamus in the crypto space—and Tim Draper, one of the earliest bitcoin investors.

In a recent interview with BlockTV, Draper reaffirmed his 2022 target of $250,000 per BTC. However, while doubling down, the angel investor brought the prediction forward, noting that bitcoin could start moving towards that goal by the end of 2020.

“If you run a technical analysis, it looks like it’ll be something like six months after the halving that we will cross $250,000 per Bitcoin,” Draper explained. The halving will take place in May, 2020, when the new supply of bitcoin will be cut in half.

The Bitcoin “halvening” is coming in 2020; what does it mean?

The “halvening” is coming: in mid-May 2020, the supply of Bitcoins issued as mining rewards will be cut in half, again. Will the halvening cause a boom in the price of Bitcoin? Based on the la…

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Long Reads

Nawaz Sulemanji

Nov 30, 2019

8 min read

Draper refers to the stock-to-flow-model (SF)—a method of measuring scarcity, based on current supply and annual inflation. In essence, the higher the ratio, the more scarce an asset is deemed. The theory goes that the increase in scarcity will lead to an increase in price—but this isn’t necessarily the case. Bitcoin’s SF value currently stands at 25 and is expected to rise to 50 after the halving, due to the supply shock.